ISTANBUL — Over the previous 12 months, the leaders of many NATO nations have seen President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey as an in-house spoiler.
While they have been making an attempt to isolate President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for his invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Erdogan referred to Mr. Putin as “my friend.” While different leaders labored to enlarge the alliance, Mr. Erdogan held up the method by looking for concessions for Turkey.
Then on Monday, instantly, Mr. Erdogan flipped, dropping his objections to Sweden becoming a member of NATO and permitting the alliance’s summit to convene on Tuesday with a brand new sense of power and unity.
Mr. Erdogan’s about-face is constant along with his political model: He usually doubles down on insurance policies he expects to strengthen him, after which unapologetically throws them out as soon as their price has diminished, analysts mentioned.
In this case, he appears to have notice that he had little extra to realize from persevering with to dam Sweden, however might probably profit rather more from mending his bitter relationships with the United States and his different NATO allies.
“This is not Erdogan’s first U-turn and will not be the last,” mentioned Osman Sert, the analysis director for PanoramaTR, a Turkish threat evaluation group. “Mr. Erdogan knows he needs to do something to create a bridge to the West.”
For greater than a 12 months since Sweden utilized to affix NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Erdogan has been the first stumbling block, accusing Sweden of harboring dissidents whom Turkey considers terrorists, and vowing to let Sweden be a part of NATO solely after it had cracked down on them.
And Sweden responded, a win for Mr. Erdogan. Sweden has hardened its antiterrorism legal guidelines, amended its structure and agreed to extradite various individuals Turkey has requested for.
Turkey received just a few extra concessions in saying its acceptance of Sweden on Monday: Sweden agreed to proceed its counterterror efforts and to extend financial cooperation with Turkey.
But different points might have performed a bigger function in altering Mr. Erdogan’s thoughts, analysts mentioned.
Turkey has been making an attempt to purchase F-16 fighter jets and different army tools from the United States, however the deal has been held up by Congress, the place some members mentioned they’d not approve it except Turkey allowed Sweden to affix NATO. Biden administration officers have denied that the 2 points are linked, however various Turkish analysts mentioned that casual ensures from U.S. officers that President Biden would work to push the deal via seemingly performed a big function.
Before personal talks with Mr. Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, on Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan described their assembly as “the first step” in a stronger relationship.
“All of our previous meetings were like warm-up rounds, but right now we launch a new process,” Mr. Erdogan mentioned.
He wished Mr. Biden good luck within the upcoming United States elections, saying that the 2 males might work collectively via the remainder of the brand new five-year time period that Mr. Erdogan received in May.
“Thank you very much,” Mr. Biden replied, saying he regarded ahead to cooperating “for the next five years.”
Mr. Erdogan was in all probability additionally conscious that his NATO allies’ endurance was starting to put on skinny and that persevering with to carry out on Sweden’s membership bid would make relations even worse. Turkey is the one NATO nation that has not imposed sanctions on Russia, which has led some Western officers to query Turkey’s loyalty to the alliance.
“Turkey made the assessment that the potential additional benefits they could gain by prolonging the process were no longer worth the pressure that Turkey would need to face,” mentioned Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the director of the Ankara workplace of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
The shift, he mentioned, additionally seemed to be a part of an effort by Mr. Erdogan to maneuver Turkey away from Russia and towards the West. That can be important, if sustained, he mentioned.
“Turkey and Russia did not and do not have a love affair,” Mr. Unluhisarcikli mentioned. Instead, they have interaction in “competitive cooperation,” he mentioned, and have a tendency to get nearer when Turkey feels distant from the West.
As indications of Mr. Erdogan distancing Turkey from Russia, he cited Turkey’s resolution to permit fighters from Ukraine’s Azov Regiment to return to Ukraine from Turkey final weekend, angering Russia, as did Mr. Erdogan’s failure to face unambiguously by Mr. Putin as Wagner mercenary forces marched towards Moscow in June.
“Erdogan might have assessed that putting all the eggs in Putin’s basket is not a good idea,” he mentioned.
On the flip aspect, permitting Sweden into NATO and understanding the F-16 settlement might enable Mr. Erdogan to heat up what has been a cold relationship with Washington.
Mr. Biden has saved Mr. Erdogan at arm’s size since he entered the White House. During his electoral marketing campaign, he characterised Mr. Erdogan as anti-democratic and vowed to help the Turkish opposition. Mr. Erdogan, for his half, had cordial relations with former President Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Erdogan have beforehand met throughout Mr. Biden’s presidency, however Mr. Biden is the primary U.S. president to not host Mr. Erdogan within the White House because the Turkish chief started his nationwide political profession in 2002.
Gulsin Harman contributed reporting.
Source: www.nytimes.com