The new long-range missiles, assault drones and tanks and different armored automobiles that President Volodymyr Zelensky has secured from allies in current days will fulfill many, however not all, of the calls for for weapons that Ukraine mentioned it wants for a counteroffensive towards Russia.
Military analysts imagine at the least a number of the newest tranche of Western weapons will likely be rapidly despatched to the entrance traces to chop off Russian provide routes and to strike at their artillery programs and command facilities in Ukraine’s south and east. Others could also be delivered later, together with within the autumn or past, to assist Mr. Zelensky plan for future operations ought to the conflict proceed to tug on.
But the sturdy package deal — introduced as Mr. Zelensky visited 4 European capitals during the last three days — could sign that Western officers now imagine Ukraine might retake important swaths of territory within the counteroffensive, mentioned Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a former Danish military intelligence officer.
“We wouldn’t be committing this amount of weapons to Ukraine at this point, if the thinking was that it was not likely that they would succeed,” mentioned Mr. Kirkegaard, who’s now a senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund analysis group in Brussels.
Some Western officers hope that if the Ukrainians make substantial beneficial properties of territory, they’d have extra leverage in any peace negotiations.
Just final week, Mr. Zelensky had warned that the anticipated counteroffensive towards Russia that was anticipated to start this spring or early summer season may very well be delayed until Kyiv rapidly acquired extra weapons.
European allies responded in a matter of hours.
Perhaps essentially the most important dedication got here from Germany, which on Saturday introduced — simply earlier than Mr. Zelensky landed in Berlin — that it will ship Ukraine 30 extra Leopard tanks and 20 armored combating automobiles, 16 air protection programs, greater than 200 drones and a slew of different arms and ammunition. The leaders of France and Italy additionally gave vaguer guarantees to ship gentle tanks, ammunition and air protection programs.
The extra Leopards and infantry combating automobiles that Germany is sending as a part of its package deal value 2.7 billion euros, or practically $3 billion, will likely be most helpful on Ukraine’s southern steppe, the place the Russian-controlled terrain, Mr. Kirkegaard mentioned, is nicely suited “for tank or maneuver warfare.”
But Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program on the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, famous that it was not clear that all the newly-pledged German tanks would arrive quickly. (Berlin has already delivered 18 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.)
However, he mentioned, the dedication “helps give Ukraine a degree of confidence” as navy planners put together for a drawn-out battle.
As of early March, solely 31 p.c of tanks and 76 p.c of different armored combating automobiles had been delivered to Ukraine for the approaching counteroffensive, based on categorized U.S. navy assessments that had been just lately leaked, though American officers have mentioned way more have been delivered within the months since. The Biden administration has additionally pledged to ship 31 American-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine, however they aren’t anticipated to reach till fall on the earliest.
The new air protection programs that had been promised could assist ease American worries that Ukraine didn’t have sufficient to guard itself because the counteroffensive neared. Four of the 16 air protection programs that Germany has newly pledged are thought of among the many most refined available on the market.
The newly promised long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which Britain pledged on Thursday, assist reply a longstanding request from Ukraine. The United States has to this point resisted sending American long-range missiles to Ukraine, partly to keep away from probably escalating the conflict with weapons that Ukraine might use to achieve into Russian territory.
Mr. Kirkegaard mentioned the long-range drones that Britain pledged on Monday are of explicit risk to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet within the Crimean port of Sevastopol and different websites in and close to Crimea, together with the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects occupied Crimea to Russia.
Crimea has been a key staging floor for the Russians working in captured territory in southern Ukraine.
Source: www.nytimes.com