Samsung has confronted stress from plunging reminiscence costs which has impacted its key revenue driving DRAM and NAND business.
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Samsung’s revenue might nosedive when it studies fourth-quarter earnings steerage this week as costs for key reminiscence chips proceed to plunge amid weak demand.
Analysts anticipate Samsung to report 7.18 trillion South Korean gained ($5.64 billion) in working revenue within the December quarter, in keeping with Refinitiv consensus estimates. That can be a close to 50% fall versus the fourth quarter of 2021.
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However, some analysts are extra bearish than the consensus.
Analysts at Macquarie Research forecast Samsung to report fourth-quarter working revenue of 5.5 trillion gained, which might be the bottom because the third quarter of 2016. Daiwa Capital Markets analysts see working revenue at 4.9 trillion gained, a 65% year-on-year plunge and can be the bottom because the fourth quarter of 2015.
The pessimism stems from a speedy fall in reminiscence costs. Samsung is the world’s greatest participant in so-called NAND and DRAM chips that are utilized in units akin to laptops and smartphones, by to information facilities.
NAND and DRAM costs fell sharply within the fourth quarter because of a lack of demand for the merchandise they finally go into, akin to PCs. This has led to electronics producers and different corporations that use such chips holding onto their stock, additional decreasing demand for Samsung’s chips.
Samsung shouldn’t be exempt from the “memory market carnage,” Macquarie analysts mentioned in a notice printed Tuesday.
“The magnitude and speed of the memory price decline is parallel to the global financial crisis in 2008,” Macquarie mentioned.
“A toxic combination of an end demand slump and excessive channel inventory led to a high inventory level not seen in a decade,” it added.
The analysts mentioned they anticipate Samsung’s NAND business to be loss making within the fourth quarter whereas DRAM is “likely to have a razor thin profit margin” within the first half of 2023.
Samsung’s semiconductor business, which incorporates NAND and DRAM, accounts for practically 50% of the corporate’s working revenue. Therefore, any hit to the reminiscence division could have a big effect on the general revenue the corporate studies.
Analysts additionally anticipate weak point in different components of Samsung’s business together with smartphones, which might weigh on earnings.
Samsung will launch fourth-quarter earnings and income steerage on Friday earlier than its full monetary report, possible later this month.
Recovery forward?
Analysts at Macquarie and Daiwa assume the primary half of the 12 months shall be robust for Samsung because of continued stress on reminiscence costs.
But earnings might backside within the second quarter of 2023, in keeping with Refinitiv consensus estimates.
Daiwa analysts mentioned there shall be a rebound in earnings within the second half of 2023 “along with an improving memory cycle and recovery in mobile demand.”
Macquarie analysts mentioned a downturn in reminiscence costs “tends to provide an opportunity for the memory leader came back stronger in a new cycle.”
“History has also shown that investors should not wait until the cyclical turnaround has already begun. For these reasons, we recommend investors hold onto SEC (Samsung Electronics), despite the negative near-term news.”