Elon Musk may be luring Apple into a fight with Republicans

Over the previous week, Twitter proprietor Elon Musk has been poking Apple, the massive bear of Silicon Valley, which controls app distribution to each iPhone.

Musk has been taking intention on the iPhone maker over quite a lot of matters, together with its diminished spending on Twitter promoting and its 30% minimize of all digital gross sales made by means of apps. He additionally accused Apple of threatening to pull the Twitter app from the App Store.

In one deleted tweet, Musk urged he was “going to war.” In one other, he requested if Apple hates free speech. Over the weekend, he mused he’d make his personal smartphone.

Apple has remained a sleeping bear within the face of Musk’s provocations. It has not commented, nor has CEO Tim Cook, and whereas its app evaluate moderation staffers could be speaking to Twitter behind the scenes over questionable content material, Apple hasn’t pulled the app. In truth, Twitter obtained an replace by means of app evaluate final week.

Twitter will not be that vital to Apple from a business perspective. It’s simply considered one of an unlimited variety of apps on the App Store, and it is not an enormous moneymaker for Apple by means of in-app purchases.

But on Tuesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ohio Senator-elect J.D. Vance, each Republicans, made remarks about Apple’s state of affairs that present how Musk might put Apple in a tricky spot.

Here’s a technique it might go:

• Musk makes a change to Twitter as a way to bypass Apple’s 30% charges, reminiscent of permitting customers to plug their bank cards in to the app to subscribe to Twitter Blue or different new options.
• Apple pulls the app due to these violations.
• Musk frames the dispute with Apple as a difficulty over free speech and content material moderation, and Republican politicians agree.
• Apple will get caught up in a nationwide debate over free speech and monopoly energy specializing in its App Store.

On Tuesday, DeSantis mentioned at a press convention that if Apple had been to kick Twitter off, it could present that Apple has monopolistic energy and that Congress ought to look into it. DeSantis framed it as a difficulty of free speech — many conservatives consider that social networks, together with Twitter, usually discriminate towards conservative viewpoints.

“You also hear reports Apple is threatening to remove Twitter from the App Store because Elon Musk is actually opening it up for free speech, and is restoring a lot of accounts that were unfairly and illegitimately suspended for putting out accurate information about Covid,” DeSantis mentioned.

“If Apple responds to that by nuking them from the app store, I think that would be a huge, huge mistake, and it would be a really raw exercise of monopolistic power,” he continued.

Vance framed the state of affairs equally in a tweet, saying that if Apple pulled Twitter, “This would be the most raw exercise of monopoly power in a century, and no civilized country should allow it.”

In truth, Apple’s app evaluate division is unlikely to drag Twitter over content material. While Apple often bans apps over questionable content material, they’re not often massive model names reminiscent of Twitter — they’re normally smaller, lesser-known apps. Apple’s guidelines for apps with important user-generated content material, reminiscent of Twitter, focus much less on particular sorts of infringing content material and extra on whether or not the app has a content material filtering system or content material moderation procedures. Twitter has each, though Musk’s latest cuts to Twitter’s workers might harm its potential to flag drawback posts.

But Apple could be more likely to drag the Twitter app if Twitter tries to chop Apple out of its platform charges.

It’s occurred earlier than. In 2020, Fortnite added a system inside its iPhone app that allowed customers to purchase in-game cash immediately from Epic Games, slicing out the 30% of gross sales that Apple sometimes takes. Apple eliminated Fortnite from the App Store the identical day. The episode kicked off a authorized battle, which Apple gained on most counts however is at the moment in appeals.

Google takes an analogous minimize for Android apps bought by means of its Play Store but in addition permits different Android app shops to exist and permits individuals to “sideload” apps immediately onto their telephones, whereas Apple has an unique lock on all iPhone app distribution.

Musk has good business causes to select this struggle.

In specific, Musk needs Twitter to make far more cash from direct subscriptions and never promoting. But Apple’s 30% minimize of purchases made inside apps is a significant hurdle for an organization that’s slashing prices and has a big debt load.

So Musk might pull an Epic Games transfer and allow direct billing, spurring Apple to take motion, whereas on the identical time framing the talk round free speech. If that occurred, as DeSantis urged, maybe Congress would begin asking questions. Apple would turn into a soccer in political debates. Executives could possibly be compelled to testify or present written responses.

At the very least, you’d have lawmakers reminiscent of Vance utilizing the phrases “monopoly” and “Apple” in the identical sentence. That’s a danger to Apple’s model. Debate over these matters might reenergize pending regulation such because the Open Markets Act which threatens its management over the App Store and its important earnings.

The final time Apple pulled an app that was fashionable with conservatives for lack of content material moderation was Parler in January 2021. It was restored in April.

In the interim, Apple confronted official inquiries from Republican Sens. Ken Buck and Mike Lee about why Parler was faraway from the App Store. Cook appeared on Fox News to defend the corporate’s choice.

Twitter is a considerably extra vital and well-known social community than Parler was and would seize extra consideration.

It’s most likely most dear for Apple if Twitter stays on the platform. The controversy-averse iPhone maker would most likely like this complete Elon Musk narrative to go away.

Indeed, it might play out this fashion: Apple stays silent, working with Twitter behind the scenes on its app, and Musk tweets concerning the 30% minimize when it irks him. Nothing actually adjustments.

But Musk is unpredictable, and if he does actually wish to “go to struggle” over 30% charges, Apple could possibly be compelled into a tricky spot.

Apple and Twitter didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.