COP15: What to expect at the biggest biodiversity summit in a decade

After a two-year delay, the COP15 summit will convene in Montreal to hammer out an settlement to handle the biodiversity disaster

By James Dinneen

On 7 December, representatives from almost each nation on the planet will collect in Montreal for the United Nations’ COP15 summit to sort out the world’s biodiversity disaster. Delays to the assembly have tempered expectations for the end result of the summit, however members are holding out hope that the assembly may very well be as consequential for stemming biodiversity loss because the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement was for motion on local weather change.

COP15 is the fifteenth Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, a treaty drafted in 1992 to guard the world’s biodiversity. Parties to the treaty embody the European Union and each nation on the planet besides the US and Vatican City, although each will take part within the summit. Representatives from international locations assembly in Montreal will negotiate an settlement to form the subsequent decade of motion on biodiversity.

There are 22 targets within the draft settlement, often known as the Global Biodiversity Framework. The draft was a created by a UN working group within the years main as much as COP15 to exchange a earlier settlement from the final main biodiversity summit held in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, in 2010.

One of the important thing targets within the draft is a dedication to guard at the very least 30 per cent of land and water across the globe by 2030. More than 100 international locations have joined a coalition in assist of this “30 by 30” purpose.

That could be a big improve – as of 2020, 15 per cent of land and about 7.5 per cent of the ocean was protected – however “30 per cent is not enough,” says Eric Dinerstein at Resolve, a US environmental consultancy. Dinerstein is a part of a gaggle advocating for 50 per cent of the planet to be protected by 2030.

Other draft targets embody offsetting billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions with nature-based approaches corresponding to conserving biodiversity-rich rainforests, stopping the unfold of invasive species and decreasing air pollution from pesticides, fertiliser and waste. Another seeks to finish or cut back subsidies for industries that contribute to biodiversity loss, as an illustration by way of deforestation.

Climate change may also be a central subject in Montreal. Not solely does warming threaten many species of animals and vegetation, biodiverse forests and wholesome ecosystems sequester carbon – and stemming their losses is vital to reaching probably the most bold targets of the Paris Agreement. “We absolutely have to conserve the world’s most biodiverse forests if we are going to stay within 1.5°C [of warming],” says Dinerstein.

COP15 was initially set to occur in Kunming, China, in October of 2020, however was pushed again 4 occasions resulting from covid-19. The assembly was moved to Canada to keep away from additional delays, with China retaining the presidency. The first part of the conference was held in Kunming in October of 2021. Ministers from greater than 100 international locations pledged to succeed in an settlement on the Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022, however stopped wanting committing to particular targets.

The delays haven’t helped momentum in the direction of an settlement, says Tierra Curry on the Center for Biological Diversity, a US conservation advocacy group. “There’s still way too many brackets” indicating parts of the settlement which are to be decided, says Susan Lieberman on the Wildlife Conservation Society, a nonprofit organisation in New York.

The working group has a remaining session simply earlier than the conference to attempt to work out as a lot as potential, however a packed agenda will begin already delayed. Alice Hughes on the University of Hong Kong says simply two of the targets and round 20 per cent of the textual content within the framework has been agreed to. “A lot of us are very anxious because we haven’t had the degree of progress needed,” she says.

Major sticking factors embody the function of donor international locations and organisations in financing conservation initiatives in lower-income international locations – the draft settlement estimates $700 billion could be wanted to implement the targets. COP15 may also function negotiations on the controversial query of who ought to profit from medical or different biotechnology primarily based on genetic sequences saved as digital data, in addition to discussions on biosafety and the function of artificial biology in conservation.

If an settlement on the framework is reached on the summit, it will change the 2010 Aichi targets. Despite partial progress on a number of of these targets, corresponding to the quantity of protected water and land, none had been absolutely achieved by 2020.

But there may be cause to hope any targets agreed to in Montreal shall be extra profitable. For one, there’s extra data about how the world’s biodiversity is distributed and find out how to shield it, says Dinerstein. There can also be a better recognition and involvement of Indigenous folks within the course of. Indigenous lands typically comprise extra biodiversity than lands not managed by Indigenous peoples.

“We’ve learned a lot of lessons from nature over the last few years,”  says Linda Kreuger at The Nature Conservancy, a conservation non-profit. “I’m hopeful negotiators will come ready to act.”