Avatar: The Way of Water
Courtesy: Disney Co.
All eyes are on “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” second week on the field workplace.
James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time fell in need of preliminary box-office expectations throughout its debut final week. The movie snared $134 million domestically, in need of the $175 million that trade analysts had predicted, and just below the $135 million to $150 million vary that Disney had forecast.
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While “The Way of Water” tied with Warner Bros.’ “The Batman” for the fifth-highest opening of the yr and practically doubled the opening weekend of its predecessor, the softer-than-expected opening has left many box-office analysts questioning whether or not the movie will be capable of meet Cameron’s lofty purpose of $2 billion on the international field workplace.
As of Thursday, the movie had tallied greater than $600 million worldwide, just a little greater than one-fourth of the best way to Cameron’s goal for profitability.
The film’s second week will assist make clear its longer-term box-office prospects. Showbiz analysts typically look to the second week drop as an indicator of whether or not a movie can have longevity on the field workplace or could fizzle shortly.
For most movies, a 50% to 70% drop is the norm. Major tentpole options from Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe typically see box-office ticket gross sales fall on this vary after reaching sky-high opening weekend numbers. While these sorts of movies can proceed on towards billion-dollar or greater theatrical runs, this metric can point out whether or not word-of-mouth is bringing new audiences to theaters or whether or not curiosity is waning.
A key instance is Paramount and Skydance’s “Top Gun: Maverick” which noticed ticket gross sales decline simply 29% in its second week in theaters. The movie has generated greater than $1.4 billion on the international field workplace, and performed in theaters for greater than 200 days earlier than being made accessible on Paramount+.
“I think ‘Avatar 2’ will continue to slay all day through the year and into the next,” mentioned Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “The drop will be sizable, sure, but not like a traditional Marvel drop as Cameron’s film is really the only game in town for families for weeks, if not months.”
The subsequent main blockbuster — Disney and Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” — would not hit theaters till Feb. 17, leaving “The Way of Water” a protracted stretch on the field workplace with out hefty competitors.
Not to say, the times between Christmas and New Year’s eves can account for as a lot as 5% of the yr’s complete box-office receipts, in accordance with knowledge from Comscore. Prior to the Covid pandemic, that week averaged between $400 million and $600 million in ticket gross sales.
Of course, within the wake of the pandemic, the field workplace has been trailing 2019 ranges by round 35%. Without a slew of typical vacation releases, the ultimate stretch of the yr may very well be considerably decrease than earlier years.
Compounding that is combined word-of-mouth about “The Way of Water.” While critics have lauded Cameron’s visuals, saying that the film must be seen on the most important display doable, a big portion have additionally expressed disappointment in Cameron’s script and its greater than three-hour run time. Still, the film acquired excessive marks in viewers surveys, together with an “A” from CinemaScore and a 93% “fresh” viewers score on Rotten Tomatoes.
James Cameron’s observe report
Director James Cameron attends the “Avatar: The Way of Water” world premiere on the Odeon Luxe Leicester Square on December 06, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Joe Maher/Getty Images)
Joe Maher | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Still, few within the trade are betting in opposition to Cameron. The filmmaker has a historical past of long-running hits on the field workplace, together with the unique “Avatar” (2009) and “Titanic” (1997).
“This second weekend has long been destined for deflated numbers due to Christmas Eve, but that’s why it’s so critical to view the film’s run based on the strength of weekdays and weekends combined over the long holiday corridor,” mentioned Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at FieldOffice.com. “There have been a number of pre-determined headlines about this sequel for years, but let’s wait and reserve judgment based on what the global numbers tell us over the next couple of weeks.”
Aiding the movie’s field workplace has been a big push for 3D and premium format tickets, that are costlier than conventional seats. The common ticket for “The Way of Water” is projected to be round $14.76 this weekend, in accordance with knowledge from EntTelligence. Meanwhile, Universal’s “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Sony’s “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” and Paramount’s “Babylon” are anticipated to generate round $11 per ticket.
“James Cameron is no stranger to the importance of the long game when it comes to box office,” mentioned Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “His films [have previously relied] heavily on the currency of audience excitement building over time rather than an opening weekend pop.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the dad or mum firm of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.”