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They say all good issues should come to an finish, that champions received’t be champions perpetually.
And, because the rain fell at Carrington Park final Saturday evening, there appeared a sobering sense that issues will probably be completely different at Penrith this yr.
How completely different precisely? Well, even after a loss to the beforehand winless Tigers, it’s nonetheless too early to reply that query.
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Because whereas all good issues will come to an finish and the Panthers received’t be champions perpetually, there’s purpose to consider Penrith may nonetheless make historical past this season.
But if the Panthers are to turn out to be the primary workforce to win three premierships in a row within the NRL period, it should look very completely different to the record-breaking dominance of years previous.
It’s not a lot that Penrith just isn’t a title contender in 2023. Far from it, in truth.
Blowout wins over Manly and Canberra are proof of simply how far the Panthers can go, in the event that they get it proper. For the primary time in a very long time although, Penrith hasn’t obtained it proper.
They’ve taken the incorrect possibility, misplaced video games they normally wouldn’t and customarily lacked the poise and polish that made them a premiership powerhouse. James Graham put it greatest whereas talking on Triple M final Sunday.
“They’ve been so far ahead, that’s what people have become accustomed to,” the English veteran mentioned.
“I think now they’re back in the pack. The pack is bigger and with their best 17 on the field they’re a chance but they lose a couple of players and they’re just like any other team.”
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It’s not as easy a case because the hunter turning into the hunted both. The Panthers have been the hunted for just a few years now and nonetheless maintained a degree of depth to drop solely 4 video games final yr.
Already, Penrith has misplaced simply as many within the area of 9 video games in 2023. But there’s one factor that has modified, exterior of the apparent holes left behind by Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikau.
The Panthers aren’t beginning video games in addition to that they had prior to now and that’s giving opposition groups an edge, confidence that they’re in with a shot in opposition to the defending champions.
It’s a shock given how sturdy Penrith began video games final yr and one thing coach Ivan Cleary conceded to reporters earlier this week.
“I feel like we’ve brought the best out of everyone,” Cleary mentioned.
“But we’ve helped that, to be quite honest. Particularly in the starts of games, we have only had the one game against Manly where I would say that we started in the first half to the kind of level we would like.
“So, that’s a lot of games where we haven’t and then we’ve had to battle and when you’re doing that you keep the opposition confident.”
The Panthers have led at halftime in simply three of eight video games this season in comparison with 18 of 26 final yr the place, you guessed it, they received all 18.
Now, heading into this weekend’s Magic Round conflict in opposition to the Warriors, Penrith is prone to shedding three-straight video games for the primary time for the reason that finish of the 2019 season.
That season, in fact, being the final one the Panthers discovered themselves out of the highest eight and out of the premiership image fully.
So, what’s behind Penrith’s fall again to the pack and what are issues they are doing properly that might nonetheless maintain the Panthers in competition come the primary week of October?
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It’s hardly groundbreaking evaluation to level out that the Panthers are lacking the specter of Koroisau at dummy-half, nevertheless it can also’t be ignored on the identical time.
The tandem of Mitch Kenny and Soni Luke may work given Penrith began Kenny in some video games final yr to get by way of the defensive work early, liberating up Koroisau to reap the benefits of drained forwards by way of the center.
But an injury-interrupted pre-season and concussion in opposition to Parramatta has restricted Luke’s minutes and therefore his capability to search out his rhythm in first grade.
In spite of that Luke has proven glimpses of the craftiness that had teammate Spencer Leniu calling him as a “miniature Api” in an interview with foxsports.com.au final yr.
The 27-year-old already has two strive assists, one linebreak help and, crucially, 4 compelled dropouts from a median of simply 35 minutes on the sector this season.
Those compelled dropouts are significantly vital as they’re only one instance of the range he gives Penrith’s assault compared with Kenny, who has only one strive help.
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For coach Cleary, the main focus will probably be on persevering with to construct up Luke’s minutes till he’s assured and comfy to fill an identical position to that of Koroisau final yr.
Otherwise, the Panthers threat falling into the identical entice they discovered themselves in between 2016 and 2019, the place they cycled between six completely different beginning hookers within the seek for a long-term possibility.
In additional proof of how large a loss Koroisau is, he fell simply six strive assists and eight linebreak assists quick within the 2022 season of what all six managed beginning in these 4 years at Penrith.
As for the lack of Viliame Kikau, that has impacted five-eighth Jarome Luai’s sport greater than anybody else and in flip left Nathan Cleary to shoulder much more accountability in assault.
Cleary leads the NRL’s halfbacks for line engagements (144) this season whereas rating second for complete strive involvements (20) and third for possessions (511).
Luai, alternatively, has 41 line engagements, 4 complete strive involvements and averages 39 possessions per sport.
To put that in context, listed here are how Luai’s numbers rank in opposition to five-eighths from Cronulla, North Queensland and Parramatta — final yr’s different top-four groups.
Jarome Luai: Line engagements (41), Total strive involvements (4), Possessions (39)
Dylan Brown: Line engagements (96), Total strive involvements (14), Possessions (51)
Matt Moylan: Line engagements (63), Total strive involvements (17), Possessions (43)
Tom Dearden: Line engagements (44), Total strive involvements (7), Possessions(62)
Kikau’s twin risk as a runner and ball participant meant Penrith, and extra particularly Luai, was higher served giving him early ball and letting the Fijian worldwide put the defence in two minds.
Now that accountability has fallen onto Luai and he did properly to execute on a set play final weekend that began on the best edge and ended with a Tyrone Peachey strive.
But Luai’s ball-playing, significantly within the opposition crimson zone, might want to enhance for the Panthers to pose extra of a risk.
Of course, Penrith’s common assault this yr just isn’t on Luai alone.
In basic, the Panthers have turn out to be too predictable with the identical set performs that had been way more profitable prior to now as a result of they had been delivered with precision and pace.
Quite a lot of that comes again to sharp service out of dummy-half, one thing Koroisau supplied.
Shrewd new addition Zac Hosking may play a task in addressing Penrith’s lack of efficiency shut the road, with sharp gap working that makes him an instantaneous risk for the defence.
Although Hosking has been used as a decoy over eight instances in three of Penrith’s previous 5 video games.
PENRITH’S AVERAGE ATTACK
Run metres: 1525 (1st)
Tackles inside opposition 20: 33.9 (2nd)
Red zone ratio: 13.6 (thirteenth)
Points scored: 22.9 (seventh)
Tries scored: 3.9 (ninth)
Linebreaks: 4.3 (tenth)
If there’s one factor saving Penrith in the mean time although, it’s its defence, which charges proper as much as the highest of the league throughout the board.
The Panthers additionally, as evidenced above, are having no issues moving into opposition territory and loads of that comes again to the run metres their exterior backs generate.
Brian To’o (175) and Sunia Turuva (149 metres) ranks first and fifth within the league for common run metres amongst wingers whereas Edwards (166) solely falls behind Seb Kris for fullbacks.
PENRITH’S BRICK WALL
Points conceded: 13.9 (1st)
Tries conceded: 2.4 (1st)
Linebreaks conceded: 2.3 (1st)
Run metres conceded: 1306 (2nd)
Missed tackles: 24.5 (2nd)
And whereas a number of groups are coping with accidents in the mean time, the returns of James Fisher-Harris, Liam Martin and Spencer Leniu within the coming weeks will assist.
Fisher-Harris returns for the Panthers this week after lacking the previous 4 weeks with a knee harm and for the reason that begin of 2018 Penrith has received solely 54 p.c of video games with out the Kiwi worldwide in comparison with 74 p.c with him
The Panthers had been responsible of making an attempt to go across the Tigers far too usually final week in Bathurst, seemingly ignoring the moist situations and coughing up low-cost possession in consequence.
It was not a one-off both although, with Penrith making the identical mistake even in its pre-season World Club Challenge sport in opposition to St Helens.
With losses to Brisbane and Parramatta additionally coming in rain-affected video games, it had Graham questioning whether or not adjusting to moist climate may very well be Penrith’s Achilles heel.
“I just wonder if playing in the rain not only affects their style but also gives the opposition the ability to jam and stop the ball getting to the edge a bit,” Graham mentioned on Triple M.
“I think that’s what St. Helens did, I was watching that game closely live and noticed there was a real aggression on the edge and on the Penrith shifts. I think generally they are missing a few players as well.
“When you’re missing those type of players that have such an emphasis on line speed, aggression in defence and attacking with your defence, you’re going to lose that spark and the players they’re bringing in just likely don’t have the capabilities.”
Fisher-Harris, Leniu and even Martin on the sting are the form of no-nonsense forwards who run laborious and straight, one thing Penrith was missing dearly final week in opposition to the Tigers.
Although Fisher-Harris regarded a shadow of his typical self earlier than being sidelined by way of harm, averaging 75 run metres — the bottom in his profession since 2017.
Fisher-Harris was simply one among a number of Panthers who competed in final yr’s Rugby League World Cup and Gorden Tallis questioned on Triple M final week whether or not which may be partly guilty for Penrith’s sluggish begin to the season.
“They’ve had a really tough start,” Tallis mentioned.
“They had Parramatta, Brisbane, a World Club Challenge and a lot of their players have come back from the World Cup. They’ve had a pretty hectic start and they’ve been up for it. They’ve won two competitions.
“They are the elite, everybody guns for you, everybody wants you as a scalp. You can’t win every game.”
Tallis is true. No workforce has received each sport this yr and that in itself is the most important purpose why there isn’t a must panic on the foot of the mountains simply but.
The Panthers have been removed from their greatest and nonetheless sit in seventh place on the ladder, admittedly with two bye factors already up their sleeve.
But the broader level is that no different workforce has actually introduced themselves as an outright contender in the identical manner Penrith had prior to now few seasons.
Only final weekend South Sydney romped to a 32-6 win over Brisbane, the competitors’s earlier bench mark.
And only a fortnight in the past Penrith appeared destined to beat that very same Rabbitohs workforce if not for some late Alex Johnston magic.
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It’s why former premiership-winning halfback Cooper Cronk just isn’t studying an excessive amount of into Penrith’s underwhelming begin to the season.
All good issues might come to an finish however it’s far too early to declare this the tip of what has been probably the most dominant forces within the NRL period.
Sure, they is probably not the identical Panthers workforce with the identical ruthlessness that resulted in two-straight premierships. But that doesn’t imply they will’t win one other. They’ll simply must work even more durable.
“I’m not worried at all,” Cronk advised foxsports.com.au.
“As a fan of what Penrith have done for a long time I wouldn’t be worried at all.
“They have lost five games this year including the World Club Challenge all by four two points or less. I think two or three have been field goals.
“They are still the best defensive team in the competition.
“Yes Api Koroisau moved on and he is dynamic, but they have still got the Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary combination to control that middle third of the field.
“The big thing for me with Penrith is not what they are doing now. It is how they play four weeks out from the end of the season.
“I think that is the key. They can hover between wins and losses for the next period of time, but if they are healthy with four weeks to go and their best players play well in Origin and their energy tank is still high, I would still be very confident if I was a Penrith supporter.”
Source: www.foxsports.com.au