The Kremlin is contemplating choices on bringing the personal army group Wagner below its direct management after the presumed demise of its chief, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, in keeping with U.S. and Western officers.
Among these prospects, officers say, are absorbing Wagner into the Defense Ministry or its army intelligence arm. The Kremlin may additionally set up a Russian basic or different authorities ally as its new chief, in keeping with individuals briefed on the preliminary intelligence.
Officials careworn that the way forward for Wagner, whom Russia trusted as a parallel preventing power in Ukraine till it fell out of the Kremlin’s favor after a short-lived mutiny in June, was by no means clear. Still, U.S. officers mentioned the Kremlin believes the group’s army prowess, skilled operators and ties to African governments are too useful to surrender or permit to wither away.
A airplane believed to be carrying Mr. Prigozhin crashed on Wednesday, Russian, U.S. and European officers have mentioned. U.S. officers mentioned the airplane appeared to have been downed on the orders of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, as revenge for Mr. Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny. He had despatched a column of mercenaries towards Moscow in an try to oust the management of the Defense Ministry. U.S. officers imagine an explosion aboard the airplane, presumably a bomb, introduced down the airplane.
The officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity, mentioned the Kremlin appeared to not have made any remaining choices of what to do with Wagner and, consequently, the intelligence image was evolving.
No matter what possibility the Kremlin chooses, U.S. and Western officers mentioned, there are myriad challenges for the Russian authorities.
If the Kremlin tries to soak up Wagner into the G.R.U. or the broader Ministry of Defense, a significant query could be whether or not veteran Wagner mercenaries would belief, and even settle for, any type of authorities takeover. A mass exodus may comply with.
But there are additionally different issues, together with what to do with the corporate’s moneymaking endeavors in Africa, and if they might achieve success as a state-controlled operation.
American officers imagine Mr. Putin desires to claim direct management and doesn’t intend to permit the corporate to decide on its personal substitute for Mr. Prigozhin.
In early July, following Mr. Prigozhin’s preliminary riot, the Kremlin moved to dissolve the Internet Research Agency, the troll farm and affect operation Mr. Prigozhin had based and used to assault Hillary Clinton in the course of the 2016 election. But the Kremlin didn’t shut down Wagner, permitting a few of its most skilled fighters to take refuge in Belarus even because it enticed others to signal contracts with the Defense Ministry.
Pentagon officers say that below Mr. Prigozhin, the Wagner forces had been Russia’s handiest fight forces on the battlefield in Ukraine, notably within the combat to grab the town of Bakhmut within the east. But Wagner forces have since withdrawn from Ukraine, and most have relocated to Belarus.
“For all intents and purposes, their combat effectiveness has been diminished. And they are no longer a significant factor when it comes to the conflict inside Ukraine,” Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, informed reporters on Thursday.
Having the G.R.U. soak up Wagner or a army basic take it over could be a logical step for the Kremlin, U.S. officers mentioned.
The army intelligence service labored carefully with Wagner forces in Africa, generally devising operations that the mercenary group supported, to a point. The firm’s work there typically blends comfortable energy with blunt power. Wagner’s operations in Ukraine had been far more consistent with typical army operations, throwing waves of poorly educated convicts towards Ukraine’s army.
Absorbing Wagner would develop the G.R.U.’s onerous army energy, however the two organizations additionally function in related methods, hiding their true intentions and working within the shadows. While the intelligence service’s operations typically fall wanting their tactical objectives, G.R.U. has exemplified the sort of aggressive hybrid intelligence service Mr. Putin needed, mixing propaganda, affect campaigns, hacking assaults and assassinations to hold out Russian intelligence and overseas coverage objectives.
General Ryder mentioned the United States would preserve a detailed watch on Wagner’s work in Africa, even with the demise of Mr. Prigozhin. “I don’t think anybody’s going to discount the potential for danger when it comes to that group or the remnants of that group,” he mentioned.
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported {that a} G.R.U. basic was poised to take over Wagner’s African operations.
The G.R.U. — specifically, one in all its clandestine arms, Unit 29155 — deliberate and carried out the tried assassination in Salisbury, England, of Sergei V. Skripal, the previous Russian intelligence officer who had been despatched to Britain in a spy swap, in keeping with British and American officers.
The unit has additionally been accused of crafting a destabilization marketing campaign in Moldova, poisoning an arms vendor in Bulgaria and orchestrating an tried coup in Montenegro. Some American officers additionally imagine Unit 29155 was concerned in a plan to pay bounties to Taliban members who killed American service members in Afghanistan.
Alain Delaquérière contributed analysis.
Source: www.nytimes.com